In its outlook update report, the Asian
Development Bank warns that unfavourable demographic structures can cut
growth by 1 per cent a year. In China, the proportion of elderly to
working age people could quadruple between now and mid-century.
Inflation, with its usual trail of social unrest and violence, looms on
the horizon.
Hong Kong – An aging population
and rising inflation could hurt Asian growth. If governments do not
address these issues, economic recession and social spending could jump,
this according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). In its outlook
update report, the bank expects lower growth and rising inflation. For
this reason, governments must make structural reforms in the coming
years.
Specifically, the ADB cut its growth forecast for developing Asia to 7.5
per cent in 2011, from its earlier projection of 7.8 per cent.
Excluding Japan, which is still reeling from the tsunami six months ago,
the bank attributed the moderating growth of Asian economies to ongoing
worries about the health of the US and European economies.
However, the main factor is the continent’s demography. "Asia's
population is aging at a speed unprecedented in human history," said
Changyong Rhee, chief economist at ADB. China, for example, is expected
to see the proportion of elderly to working age people quadruple between
now and 2050, surpassing the United States.
In the last three decades, those countries that had favourable age
structures added more than 1 percentage point to average annual per
capita gross domestic product growth, the ADB said.
However, China’s one-child policy has undermined that favourable
condition, increasing the number of elderly in need of government
assistance and cutting the number of revenue generating workers.
Inflation is the other major threat, the report found. In fact, the
inflation rate for developing Asia is expected to average 5.8 per cent
this year. That is higher than an initial estimate of 5.3 per cent in
April.
The world’s economic downturn is the cause, especially the United
States’ inability to create jobs and Europe’s persistent failure to
tackle its debt crisis.
All these factors have prompted South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and the
Philippines to avoid raising interest rates this month after boosting
them earlier this year.
Still, policy makers need to be prepared for greater volatility in
capital flows and the persistent threat of rising prices, the ADB said.
(AsiaNews)
by Joseph Yun Li-sun
The World Food Programme has just released a
video revealing the critical food shortage in North Korea. A local
sources tells AsiaNews: “This is nothing new for those who work in the
field, but to allow such an undertaking Pyongyang must be really
desperate ”.
Seoul– The video, shown
yesterday by WFP, “ shows nothing new to those who, sadly, are all too
familiar with the situation in North Korea DPRK. But it is a new and
most important signal: Pyongyang is now willing to open its borders to
food aid, and even to allow international organisations to film and show
a video. They must be really desperate”.
AsiaNews was told this by a South Korean source who takes semi regular
trips transporting humanitarian aid and medicines over the border into
North Korea. The video in question was released yesterday on the WFP web
site and can be seen here. The video, filmed in the DPRK by Jonathan
Dumont WFP’s Head of TV Communications, reveals the faces of the famine
which has hit the regime.
Floods and starvation have plunged the people of North Korea among the
world's poorest. The government, for its part, uses any money it manages
to make to finance its military and the insane expenses of the ruling
oligarchy, headed by Kim Jong-il and his third son and heir, Kim
Jong-un. Following episodes of military and nuclear provocation in the
last two years, loans to the country from the international community
were cut.
Still today, the source told AsiaNews, “only a few local protestant
Churches and, occasionally, the local Catholic charity CARITAS South
Korea, are given permission by the Seoul government to transport
humanitarian aid over the border to N. Korea. Unfortunately that regime
has exaggerated, and the South has no desire to appear feeble in the
eyes of the West. From the video it is clear that the situation is
desperate. We hope and we pray for a change in that Communist
leadership: only a change can save the people in the North ”.
(AsiaNews)
The government has set up an emergency task
force and evacuation order for 460 thousand people. It is the most
destructive typhoon since 2004. The provisional toll of about 27
confirmed dead and at least 54 missing.
Tokyo - At least 27
dead and 54 missing is the preliminary toll from the passage of typhoon
"Talas" in south-western Japan, where over 3600 people are still
isolated. At dawn, the police and fire departments resumed the search
for those still missing, and warned that the situation is serious enough
to expect further casualties. Torrential rains brought by "Talas" have
caused rivers to overflow as well as flooding, mudslides and landslides,
which in turn have destroyed houses, bridges and roads, making rescue
operations more difficult.
The first typhoon hit the island of Shikoku and having swept the
southern part of Honshu Island now heading north-east over the Sea of
Japan, at an average speed of 15 mph with gusts reaching but peaks of
more than 100 km per hour. The alert remains in force in 38 of the
country’s 43 provinces. "Talas" is the most destructive typhoon to hit
Japan since 2004.
The government has created a task force to coordinate the emergency
rescue operations. The new government of Yoshihiko Noda, a few days ago
has replaced that of Naoto Kan, criticized for its handling of the
earthquake and tsunami disaster of last March. The authorities have
issued alerts and evacuation orders affecting about 460 thousand
inhabitants. The typhoon has destroyed entire villages, while bridges
and roads have disappeared under the water. In Nara Prefecture seven
people died when a river swept away their home.
(AsiaNews)
by Bernardo Cervellera
Many hope that Beijing might buy Italy’s and
Europe’s sovereign debt; however, China’s economy has the same problems
as that of the rest of the world: overproduction, export dependency, and
overreliance on exports and foreign capital—add to that the yuan’s
artificial value and an unfree workforce. Instead, China and Europe
should heed Benedict XVI’s teachings, namely that man (not profits) and a
sense of responsibility must be at the centre of the economy.
Rome – It will be difficult if
not impossible for China to save Italy and Europe from its sovereign
debt crisis. In recent days, the Financial Times ran a few stories
saying that Rome and Beijing had reached a deal for the mainland to buy
Italian treasury bills. Many economists and bankers reacted favourably
to the news that China was coming to Europe’s rescue. Some predict that
China would even save the world.
We cannot share this optimism. Speaking to World Economic Forum in
Dalian, China’s premier Wen Jiabao said that his country would lend
Europe a “helping hand” but he showed very little enthusiasm about
paying for Europe’s debt. What is more, his conditions for help, like
granting China ‘full market economy’ status as well as the elimination
of tariffs, would be just the sign of another flood of Chinese goods.
Indeed, the numbers do not add up. If Beijing wants to help the European
and world economies, it should lift its own tariffs on imported goods.
Looking at figures for 2010, China’s trade surplus with the rest of the
world stood at US$ 184.4 billion. If Beijing wants to help the world
pull out of this crisis, it must import more and its trade balance
should be in negative territory. However, if it did this it would likely
increase unemployment, which is already high and a source of headaches
for China’s leaders.
It is true that with US$ 3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, China
is investing around the world. Italy and Europe could hope for some
crumbs. However, if we look closely at the numbers, we see that if the
mainland invested US$ 38 billion abroad in 2009, the rest of the world
splurged US$ 106 billion in China (Source: UNCTAD). In short, Beijing
takes more than it gives. And this surplus goes to help China to
recapitalise its often insolvent banking system.
Placing any hope on China helping the world economy is unrealistic and
flawed reasoning. China is in the same situation as the rest of the
world, weighted down by overproduction, export dependency, overexposed
banks, and compressed consumption. Its success lies on an artificially
overvalued yuan and a cheap and unfree workforce.
With a doped economy, Chinese leaders have launched an ambitious
infrastructure programme to boost gross domestic product. Contrary to
expectations, this did not created any real wealth. More than half of
all housing and office space lies vacant because no one can buy them.
China’s economy lacks something else: fantasy and creativity. For
centuries, Chinese leaders held their culture within restrictive
confines, stifling their people under imperial and then Communist
control. Creativity instead needs freedom and human rights, another
element that is still missing in today’s China.
China can pull off great shows—the Olympics, Shanghai Expo, Asia
Games—but it cannot solve the problems of its people: the chaotic
traffic in its megacities, pollution, quality of life and justice for
its workers and farmers.
On his flight to Madrid for World Youth Day, Benedict XVI said that “man
must be the centre of the economy and the economy cannot be measured
according to the maxim of profit but rather according to the common good
of all, that it implies responsibility for others and only really
functions well if it functions humanly, with respect for others.”
China, but also Europe, has not placed man at the centre of things;
their leaders lack a creative sense of responsibility. Both tend to seek
solutions by dumping responsibility on the shoulders of some “economic
saviour”.
Two ageing F-5 fighters F5 crashed into a
mountain in the east of Taiwan, and the deaths of the three airforce
pilots triggered new demands for a US arms sale. While Taiwan's
democratic candidate criticises president Ma and says: “We support
peace, but we do want security from China”. For the first time in 10
years the State Department may shirk the US-Taiwan industry conference
on defence and security.
Taipei– Taiwan's army aircraft
are now no more than "flying coffins", and the United States must sell
new fighters to the Island: “This is no longer a question of simply
defence. The lives of our military are at risk”. This is the unanimous
reaction of society and politics in former Formosa following the deadly
fighter crash on 13 September in which all three pilots lost their
lives.
On Tuesday two Taiwan 'Air force ' F5 fighters disappeared from radar
shortly after take-off from Hualian base in the east of the Island. The
two jets were seen by eye witnesses as they crashed in the nearby
mountainous area: although the causes of the accident are still to be
ascertained, Taiwan officials blame the age of the jets. The bodies of
the three pilots were found yesterday.
Luo Shou-he, national army spokesman, confirmed the accident and renewed
a call to the US government in Washington to unfreeze the sale of new
F16 aircraft: “We are in dire need of replacements ”. Taiwan airforce
fleet comprises mainly aircraft built some 35 years ago: China however,
which considers the Island no more than a 'rebel province' under its own
control, is pushing the US to cancel the arms sale.
Washington, according to the “Taiwan Defence Act”, in theory is obliged
to sell Taipei all the arms it needs for defence against mainland
China. But economic pressures from Beijing and the coming to power of Ma
Yingjeou – a nationalist who has made several openings towards mainland
China– had brought the situation to a standstill. However the question
is now back in the news, with the US increasingly wary of angering
Beijing.
Precisely yesterday came confirmation that for the first time in 10
years, there will be no leading member of the US State department at the
up-coming US-Taiwan industry conference on defence and security ties
between the two countries. The gathering is to be held in Virginia 18 to
20 September. However the conference will see the attendance of a
leading member of the Pentagon.
A new voice in the Taiwan arms sales debate is that of Tsai Ing-wen,
Democratic Party candidate set to challenge Ma in presidential elections
next January. On a recent visit to Washington, Ms Tsai acknowledged
that during this democratic presidency – licensed to Chen Shui-bian,
independence champion from the very beginning – relations between the
two states have been “difficult” but, she underlined: “We have grown
together with our democracy”.
Speaking at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think
tank, she added: “Our approach to China will be stable and balanced ”.
But immediately criticised the president in office because, while asking
the United States to go ahead with the sale of new aircraft to Taiwan,,
“she has failed to set aside the promised 3 % of the GNP for the
purchase of arms. We support peace but we also want to security”.
America's President Barack Obama is expected to come to a decision on
the US - Taiwan F 16 sale before the end of this present month of
September.
(AsiaNews)
In its annual report, the US Defence
Department says Beijing is modernising its military forces, in
particular anti-satellite missiles, building an aircraft carrier, and
boosting its cyberwarfare capabilities. This could change the balance of
power in the region. Its J-20 stealth fighter aircraft programme is
expected to be operational by 2018. Beijing is none too pleased about
the report.
Beijing – China’s
People’s Liberation Army appears on track to modernise by 2020, a rapid
build-up that could potentially destabilise the Asia-Pacific region, a
United States Department of Defence report said on Wednesday. In an
angry reply, China called the US claim “unfounded suspicion and
exaggeration”.
The US Defence report noted that Chinese military growth in the past
decade exceeded most US forecasts, especially in strategic areas like
aircraft carrier programme, cyber warfare capabilities and
anti-satellite missiles.
Some China watchers, including members of the US Congress, note with
apprehension that China’s rising defence spending comes at a time when
Washington plans defence cuts.
The Pentagon report noted that China’s J-20 stealth fighter aircraft
programme would not achieve “effective operational capability” prior to
2018.
China is also building its first domestic air carrier, which would not
be operational before at least 2015, if construction began this year.
China’s defence budget this year is 601.1 billion yuan (US$ 91.5
billion), an increase of 12.7 per cent from a year before. However, many
experts believe that it is much higher. With an army of 1.25 million
men, the report suggests that China’s actual defence spending might top
US$ 160 billion.
Beijing’s reaction was swift. A spokesman for China's embassy in
Washington said the report was “a reflection of Cold War mentality”.
“It’s normal for China to develop its army and update its weaponry,” a defence Ministry spokesman said.
“We hope the US will take practical steps to work with China for stable
and healthy military ties by following the spirit of mutual respect,
mutual trust, reciprocity and mutual benefit,” Embassy spokesman Wang
Baodong said.
Yet, “The pace and scope of China's sustained military investments have
allowed China to pursue capabilities that we believe are
potentially-destabilising to regional military balances,” said Michael
Schiffer, a deputy assistant secretary of defence.
In fact, China appears to be aiming at becoming a naval power. It has
also not given up its claims to Taiwan, which it considers a rebel
province.
At least, 1,200 short-range missiles are aimed at the island. In 2010,
Beijing suspended all military cooperation with the United States to
protest US weapons sale to Taiwan.
Taipei has asked the United States for 66 F-16C/D fighter jets, a
request Washington has not yet considered to avoid worsening relations
with Beijing.
In addition, China claims sovereignty over a number of archipelagos in
the Pacific Ocean, and this year has used violence against fishing boats
from Vietnam and the Philippines to keep them away from the islands.
For the Pentagon, despite its progress at becoming a more powerful
regional military power, Beijing is not expected to be able to project
and sustain large forces in high-intensity combat operations far from
China before 2020.
Yet, cyberattacks last year against the US government were apparently traced back to China.
(AsiaNews)
Seoul has granted permission on the occasion
of the 1000th anniversary of one of the most important relics of Korean
Buddhism. The group, composed of 37 persons, includes the head of the
Jogye Order.
Seoul - A delegation of South
Korean Buddhist monks, including the head of the largest religious order
in the country, will visit North Korea to celebrate the 1000th
anniversary of the Tripitaka, one of the most important Buddhist relics
in the peninsula. The Unification Ministry in Seoul has granted
permission "for purely religious reasons", for the group to meet a
delegation of faithful and visit various temples in the communist run
North.
This is the first official visit by a non-humanitarian delegation since
May 24, 2010, when Seoul placed a total ban of all forms of cooperation
with the North. Pyongyang is considered responsible for the sinking of a
Southern navy vessel – an attack that killed 42 Korean sailors - and
the bombing of a small island where a civilian was killed.
A representative of the Ministry confirmed the permit: "This is a group
of 37 people, including the leader of the Jogye Order. The group will
leave on September 3 to visit the Bohyun temple in Mount Mohyang. Here, a
ceremony will be celebrated with a delegation of North Korean
Buddhists. Permission was given for the anniversary of the Tripitaka,
which is part of the spiritual heritage of all Koreans. "
The relic is made up of more than 80 thousand blocks of wood, carved
1000 years ago, containing all Buddhist scriptures. It is currently
stored at Haeinsa, a temple which is located in South Korea, but was
recorded and found in the northern part of Korea. The Kim regime does
not allow any religious worship outside cult of the nation’s leader, but
some Buddhists – who many believe "false" – are active in the country.
(AsiaNews)
